A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
