Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
